Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01456 |
Statistical downscaling of monthly mean temperature for Kazakhstan in Central Asia | |
Li, Yafei; Yan, Xiaodong | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 72期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Very few studies on the impact of climate change have been carried out in Kazakhstan, which is located in Central Asia. It is the largest landlocked country in the world and has a sensitive natural environment and a human society that is vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we evaluated a statistical model for downscaling the monthly mean temperature in the Kazakhstan area built from a linear regression model combined with a principal component analysis (PCA) as the preprocessing method for predictors. The air temperature, geopotential height and both components of the wind were selected as predictor variables. The result shows that the linear regression model was able to simulate monthly mean temperature averaged over the Kazakhstan region as a whole reasonably well, although there are a few mismatches with observations for some stations and in some months. A further analysis of the results of down scaling also reveals that the monthly mean temperature in summer is downscaled more accurately by this model than that in winter, with the R-2 value of 0.8 for summer being larger than that for winter of 0.7. Moreover, this statistical downscaling model shows poor performance in complex terrain areas compared to flat terrain areas, with R-2 values for the southeastern mountain station and the station by the Caspian Sea being smaller than those for other stations in Kazakhstan. |
英文关键词 | Kazakhstan Statistical downscaling Linear regression Monthly mean temperature |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402652900002 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15177 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Beijing Normal Univ, Univ Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100087, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Yafei,Yan, Xiaodong. Statistical downscaling of monthly mean temperature for Kazakhstan in Central Asia[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2017,72(2). |
APA | Li, Yafei,&Yan, Xiaodong.(2017).Statistical downscaling of monthly mean temperature for Kazakhstan in Central Asia.CLIMATE RESEARCH,72(2). |
MLA | Li, Yafei,et al."Statistical downscaling of monthly mean temperature for Kazakhstan in Central Asia".CLIMATE RESEARCH 72.2(2017). |
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