资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The present study evaluates the performances of mixed-convection schemes (MCSs) in which different cumulus schemes are activated over the land and ocean separately to simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The regional climate model RegCM4.4 is used and the initial and boundary conditions are derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis version 2 (NCEP-R2). The NCEP-R2 and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation analysis at 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees are used to evaluate the model simulated results. The four cumulus schemes Grell, MIT-Emanuel, Tiedtke, and Kain and Fritsch have been used to setting ten different combinations of MCSs.

The MCSs having Tiedtke/Emanuel scheme over the land and the Grell scheme over the ocean (L:Ti_O:Gr; L:Em_O:Gr) are found qualitatively and quantitatively better to simulating the semi-permanent characteristics of the ISM. These MCSs are effectual in predicting seasonal mean precipitation intensity and distribution during the ISM and closer to IMD precipitation analysis than any other MCSs. It is found that the MCS having Grell scheme over the land and ocean, spatial gradient of precipitation is reasonably well when compared to IMD precipitation analysis. The representation of precipitation over the central India is poor in all the MCSs; this is probably due to increased cloud cover in RegCM4 which in turn, leads to reducing surface air temperature over land and thus reduce convective instability in the model simulations. The present study proposes a statistically based screening method to identify the useful MCSs that have reasonable skills. The best performing MCSs examined for normal and deficit monsoon years are used to simulate 15 consecutive monsoon seasons (1982-1996). Simulations of several monsoon years confirm that the two MCSs namely L:Ti_O:Gr and L:Em_O:Gr are suitable to simulate the ISM.