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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7521 |
Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria | |
Thiery, Wim1,2; Gudmundsson, Lukas1; Bedka, Kristopher3; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.4; Lhermitte, Stef5; Willems, Patrick2,6; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.7; Seneviratne, Sonia I.1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Belgium; USA; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at github.com/wthiery/VIEWS. |
英文关键词 | Lake Victoria early warning systems extreme weather vulnerability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404943700005 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; MEASURING MISSION TRMM ; AFRICAN GREAT-LAKES ; RWENZORI MOUNTAINS ; EAST-AFRICA ; BASIN ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15091 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Univ Str 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Pl Laan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; 3.NASA, Sci Directorate, Langley Res Ctr, 21 Langley Blvd, Hampton, VA 23681 USA; 4.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 5.Delft Univ Technol, Dept Geosci & Remote Sensing, Stevinweg 1, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands; 6.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Kasteelpk Arenberg 40, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; 7.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Celestijnenlaan 200E, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thiery, Wim,Gudmundsson, Lukas,Bedka, Kristopher,et al. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(7). |
APA | Thiery, Wim.,Gudmundsson, Lukas.,Bedka, Kristopher.,Semazzi, Fredrick H. M..,Lhermitte, Stef.,...&Seneviratne, Sonia I..(2017).Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(7). |
MLA | Thiery, Wim,et al."Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.7(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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