Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72 |
Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter? | |
Barring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden |
英文摘要 | Since the 'Paris agreement' in 2015 there has been much focus on what a + 1.5 degrees C or + 2 degrees C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations. |
英文关键词 | climate scenarios global warming targets temperature extremes transient scenarios climate impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425339600001 |
WOS关键词 | DEGREES-C ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15078 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, Folkborgsvagen 17, SE-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barring, Lars,Strandberg, Gustav. Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(2). |
APA | Barring, Lars,&Strandberg, Gustav.(2018).Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(2). |
MLA | Barring, Lars,et al."Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.2(2018). |
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