Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b |
Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level | |
Huang, Shaochun1,2; Kumar, Rohini3; Rakovec, Oldrich3,4; Aich, Valentin2,5; Wang, Xiaoyan6; Samaniego, Luis3; Liersch, Stefan2; Krysanova, Valentina2 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway; Germany; Czech Republic; Switzerland; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios. |
英文关键词 | flood timing 100 year floods flood frequency climate change CMIP5-GCMs multi-model ensemble |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451082800004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; DEGREES-C ; RISK ; SIMULATION ; EUROPE ; WATER ; UNCERTAINTY ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15058 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate NV, Oslo, Norway; 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 3.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany; 4.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci, Prague, Czech Republic; 5.WMO, Geneva, Switzerland; 6.Hohai Univ, Ctr Global Change & Water Cycle, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Shaochun,Kumar, Rohini,Rakovec, Oldrich,et al. Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12). |
APA | Huang, Shaochun.,Kumar, Rohini.,Rakovec, Oldrich.,Aich, Valentin.,Wang, Xiaoyan.,...&Krysanova, Valentina.(2018).Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12). |
MLA | Huang, Shaochun,et al."Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018). |
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