Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99 |
Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming | |
Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L. | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5 degrees - and 2.0 degrees-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2. 0 degrees C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 degrees C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe. |
英文关键词 | climate change emergence heat extremes population exposure paris agreement |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425835400001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACTS ; WEATHER ; SIMULATIONS ; MIGRATION ; YIELD ; RISK ; HALF |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15039 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harrington, Luke J.,Otto, Friederike E. L.. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Harrington, Luke J.,&Otto, Friederike E. L..(2018).Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Harrington, Luke J.,et al."Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
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