Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa494 |
Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity | |
Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case `no policy' scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced `dynamics as usual' of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date. |
英文关键词 | energy transition fossil fuel resources decarbonization representative concentration pathways (RCPs) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) data mining climate change scenarios |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424630000001 |
WOS关键词 | STABILIZATION ; FRAMEWORK ; PATHWAY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14995 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ritchie, Justin,Dowlatabadi, Hadi. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(2). |
APA | Ritchie, Justin,&Dowlatabadi, Hadi.(2018).Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(2). |
MLA | Ritchie, Justin,et al."Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.2(2018). |
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