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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 |
A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence | |
Risbey, James S.1; Lewandowsky, Stephan1,2,3; Cowtan, Kevin4; Oreskes, Naomi5; Rahmstorf, Stefan6,7; Jokimaki, Ari; Foster, Grant8 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:12 |
文章类型 | Review |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; England; USA; Germany |
英文摘要 | This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. |
英文关键词 | climate variability climate trends temperature fluctuation pause hiatus |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453786400003 |
WOS关键词 | PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14980 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 2.Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England; 3.Univ Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia; 4.Univ York, Dept Chem, York, N Yorkshire, England; 5.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 6.Potsdam Inst Climate Impacts Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 7.Univ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; 8.1 Noyes Ct, Augusta, ME 04330 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Risbey, James S.,Lewandowsky, Stephan,Cowtan, Kevin,et al. A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12). |
APA | Risbey, James S..,Lewandowsky, Stephan.,Cowtan, Kevin.,Oreskes, Naomi.,Rahmstorf, Stefan.,...&Foster, Grant.(2018).A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12). |
MLA | Risbey, James S.,et al."A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018). |
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