GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342
A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence
Risbey, James S.1; Lewandowsky, Stephan1,2,3; Cowtan, Kevin4; Oreskes, Naomi5; Rahmstorf, Stefan6,7; Jokimaki, Ari; Foster, Grant8
2018-12-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:12
文章类型Review
语种英语
国家Australia; England; USA; Germany
英文摘要

This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.


英文关键词climate variability climate trends temperature fluctuation pause hiatus
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000453786400003
WOS关键词PACIFIC
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14980
专题气候变化
作者单位1.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia;
2.Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England;
3.Univ Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia;
4.Univ York, Dept Chem, York, N Yorkshire, England;
5.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;
6.Potsdam Inst Climate Impacts Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;
7.Univ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany;
8.1 Noyes Ct, Augusta, ME 04330 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Risbey, James S.,Lewandowsky, Stephan,Cowtan, Kevin,et al. A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12).
APA Risbey, James S..,Lewandowsky, Stephan.,Cowtan, Kevin.,Oreskes, Naomi.,Rahmstorf, Stefan.,...&Foster, Grant.(2018).A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12).
MLA Risbey, James S.,et al."A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018).
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