GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7
Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?
Devis, Annemarie1,2; Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.1; Demuzere, Matthias1,3
2018-06-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:6
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Belgium
英文摘要

Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farmprojects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between -12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over theMediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm.


英文关键词wind energy climate change wind turbine Earth system models Europe wind resource assessment multimodel ensemble
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000433551000003
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ENERGY POTENTIALS ; EUROPE ; CMIP5 ; MODEL ; IMPACTS ; HEIGHT
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14954
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium;
2.Storm, Katwilgweg 2, B-2050 Antwerp, Belgium;
3.Univ Ghent, Lab Hydrol & Water Management, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Devis, Annemarie,Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.,Demuzere, Matthias. Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6).
APA Devis, Annemarie,Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.,&Demuzere, Matthias.(2018).Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6).
MLA Devis, Annemarie,et al."Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018).
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