Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152 |
Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends | |
Iles, Carley1,2; Hegerl, Gabriele1 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; France |
英文摘要 | Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (+/- 14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future. |
英文关键词 | North Atlantic Oscillation climate variability CMIP5 atmospheric circulation decadal variability temperature trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424392900001 |
WOS关键词 | EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ANNULAR MODES ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; PRESSURE ; BLOCKING ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14927 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Alexander Crum Brown Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Univ Paris Saclay, LSCE, IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Iles, Carley,Hegerl, Gabriele. Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11). |
APA | Iles, Carley,&Hegerl, Gabriele.(2017).Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11). |
MLA | Iles, Carley,et al."Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017). |
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