Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6884 |
Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures | |
Fernandes, Katia1; Verchot, Louis2; Baethgen, Walter1; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor3; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel1,4; Martius, Christopher4 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Colombia; Indonesia |
英文摘要 | In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in monthslong hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia. |
英文关键词 | climate adaptation climate change fire and climate dynamics |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400175000001 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; TREE MORTALITY ; CLIMATE ; LAND ; PRECIPITATION ; EMISSIONS ; SEVERITY ; AMAZON |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14899 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc IRI, 61 Route 9 W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, Km 17 Recta Cali Palmira, Cali 6713, Colombia; 3.Temple Univ, Dept Geog & Urban Studies, 1115W Berks St, Philadelphia, PA 19122 USA; 4.Ctr Int Forestry Res CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR,Situ Gede, Bogor 16115, Barat, Indonesia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fernandes, Katia,Verchot, Louis,Baethgen, Walter,et al. Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(5). |
APA | Fernandes, Katia,Verchot, Louis,Baethgen, Walter,Gutierrez-Velez, Victor,Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel,&Martius, Christopher.(2017).Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(5). |
MLA | Fernandes, Katia,et al."Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.5(2017). |
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