Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9 |
Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017 | |
Otto, Friederike E. L.1; Wolski, Piotr2; Lehner, Flavio3; Tebaldi, Claudia3; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan4; Hogesteeger, Sanne5; Singh, Roop5; Holden, Petra6; Fuckar, Neven S.1,7; Odoulami, Romaric C.6; New, Mark6,8 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; South Africa; USA; Netherlands; Spain |
英文摘要 | In the period 2015-2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall-leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the 3 years running mean precipitation averaged over the Western Cape area. The exact estimate of the return time of the event is sensitive to the number of stations whose data is incorporated in the analysis but the rarity of the event is unquestionable, with a return time of more than a hundred years. Synthesising the results from five different large model ensembles as well as observed data gives a significant increase by a factor of three (95% confidence interval 1.5-6) of such a drought to occur because of anthropogenic climate change. All the model results further suggest that this trend will continue with future global warming. These results are in line with physical understanding of the effect of climate change at these latitudes and highlights that measures to improve Cape Town's resilience to future droughts are an adaptation priority. |
英文关键词 | extreme event attribution drought climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451763100002 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; SOUTH-AFRICA ; WEATHER ; WINTER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14839 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 2.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Rondebosch, South Africa; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 4.KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 5.Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, The Hague, Netherlands; 6.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Rondebosch, South Africa; 7.BSC, Barcelona, Spain; 8.Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich, Norfolk, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Otto, Friederike E. L.,Wolski, Piotr,Lehner, Flavio,et al. Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12). |
APA | Otto, Friederike E. L..,Wolski, Piotr.,Lehner, Flavio.,Tebaldi, Claudia.,van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan.,...&New, Mark.(2018).Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12). |
MLA | Otto, Friederike E. L.,et al."Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论