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Example of extra observations assimilated in a single data assimilation cycle as a result of changes in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System planned for June.

ECMWF upgrades its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) on a regular basis, and one such upgrade, to IFS Cycle 46r1, is planned for 11 June 2019. These upgrades enable the Centre to integrate the latest scientific advances into the IFS and to introduce new products.

Ahead of the implementation of IFS Cycle 46r1, Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger will give two webinars, on 15 and 16 May 2019, to explain how the changes will improve forecasts. He will also present new data and graphical products to be made available, including some case studies.

The upgrade brings major improvements in data assimilation – the combination of Earth system observations with model information to define the initial conditions for forecasts – as well as in modelling and the range of observations used.

Together the changes result in substantially better forecasts across the range of predicted values, including near-surface weather variables such as wind and temperature.

Product innovations include making the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails for weekly mean 2-metre temperature and one-week total precipitation available in the extended range.

Join the webinars

For more details on how IFS Cycle 46r1 will improve forecasts, join the webinar on Wednesday, 15 May at 0830 UTC (0930 BST) or the repeat on Thursday, 16 May at 1600 UTC (1700 BST).

The expected duration is one hour and there will be an opportunity to ask questions at the end. No advance booking is required. A recording of the webinar and the presentation slides will be made available.

A list of what is different in IFS Cycle 46r1 is provided on the implementation page for forecast users, where regular updates on this upgrade are posted.